Deutscher's system picks - 7/28 - YTD 0-1 -1 units

[deutscher]

Poor start on Tuesday, better luck on Wednesday in the Brasilian Campeonato:

Atlético-PR 1X @ 1.90 for the 1 and 3.26 for the X for 1.67 units

In case this confuses: I have created my own 1X by wagering a calculated amount on the 1 and the X, so that either result returns something (16% and 27% of the total wagered, respectively). Only the away win wipes out the bet.

 

[Data]

I am on Ponte Pretta, small. They are currently the best away team in the league and second overall. deutscher, may I ask why did your
system make this choice? Thank you.

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I am an android, not a robot.

 

[deutscher]

Quite true - in a nutshell. My system has picked Atlético-PR based on their recent history of coming back strong at home after being beaten rather badly away. I do, however, have some concern about Ponte Preta's away record, hence the cover of the X, and the poor ROI.

On the other hand, possibly excepting their most recent away win in Sao Caetano, the other teams that lost at home to Ponte Preta (Botafogo, Parana, Atletico Mineiro) are presently toward the bottom of the table, which is why this bet is on - if the away wins had been against stronger teams, no bet would have been the action here.

 

[Data]

Thank you, sir, and congratulations!
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I am an android, not a robot.

 

[deutscher]

Thank you, sir!

Well, since the wager was hedged with the X, the return is relatively small at 0.63 units (keeping the results in terms of 1 unit per wager), but I will happily take it!